Pet industry has launched a trend of listing, and domestic market competition has intensified. Profits are facing multiple challenges
The outbreak of the epidemic has heated up the pet economy, and many companies such as Tianyuan Pets and Fubei Pets have launched their listing. However, adverse factors such as raw material fluctuations, exchange gains and losses, and the impact of epidemic situation also keep the industry under pressure. As industry companies turn to the domestic market one after another, competition will become increasingly fierce. At the same time, export orientation is difficult to reverse in the short term, and profitability is facing multiple challenges.
As for pet food in 2022, especially the cost pressure of staple food raw materials, in general, animal protein, the main raw material, has the ability to take action, and the uncertainty of the international situation, global inflation expectations, strong domestic demand, intensified industrial competition and other factors may lead to price increases, "The current price is expected to last until April, after which, the demand for animal protein in the aquaculture industry will increase and the upward momentum will increase. However, if the supply of white feather broilers in the aquaculture industry increases, the price may also fall periodically."
In terms of listed companies, Zhongchong Shares (002891. SZ) and Petit Shares (300673. SZ) are mainly engaged in non staple food with chicken as raw material. The market generally takes the price of white feather chicken as its cost reference, and believes that the raw material pressure is low this year.
The distribution of domestic staple grain market has become a trend
At present, A-share pet food companies mainly include Zhongchong Shares and Petit Shares. In addition, three squirrels (300783. SZ), Haida Group (002311. SZ), New Hope Group and Tongwei Group also have a layout.
Due to the differences in the development stages of the global market, a group of domestic leading companies in the early stage mainly relied on the European and American markets and their products were mainly snacks, health products and toys. The core products of the industry, staple grains, have been occupied by international manufacturers. According to Euromonitor, the international staple grain market CR5 reached more than 53%.
With the booming domestic pet market, it has become a common choice for industry manufacturers to switch from exports to domestic sales and from non staple grains to staple grains.
There are certain historical factors for export to be sold domestically. The quality of domestic animal protein products has been questioned by overseas customers. In this case, a number of manufacturers have strengthened their determination to sell domestically. As for the shift to staple food products, the main reason is that staple food accounts for the highest proportion of industrial consumption. According to the data in the White Paper on China's Pet Industry in 2020, China's urban pet (dog and cat) consumption market will reach 206.5 billion yuan in 2020, with pet food consumption accounting for 54.70% of the total, with staple food as the core, corresponding to a market size of 81.361 billion yuan, and snacks and nutrients accounting for a relatively low proportion.
In order to achieve market and product switching, Zhongzhong Chong and Petit have chosen to lay out overseas production bases to counter the domestic market with high-end staple food products. In 2021, Zhongchong has successively acquired 70% of the shares of New Zealand PFNZ Company and 50% of the shares of domestic pet food manufacturer Hangzhou. With the help of a new round of convertible bonds, Petty Shares will invest in a pet food project with an annual output of 80000 tons in New Zealand. It is reported that the layout of New Zealand is mainly based on the consideration of raw material cost. New Zealand is rich in mutton, venison and dairy products.
At this stage, the domestic business of the two companies is still in the development period. In the first half of 2019 - 2021, the domestic income of Zhongchong Shares accounted for 19.25%, 23.76% and 24.87% respectively. In the first half of 2020, Petit's domestic revenue accounted for 16.01%.
Industry profitability faces multiple challenges
Reviewing the change of pet food cost in 2021, the cost of pet staple food industry has risen in the first half of the year, among which, the price of animal protein raw materials represented by chicken meal has risen more than twice in a row. However, due to the competitive pressure, manufacturers generally chose to digest internally, and began to increase prices in the third quarter. On the whole, the cost pressure has eased, but it is not optimistic whether it can be completely transferred. Against this background, he believes that the main raw materials of animal protein will still be active in 2022.
In terms of the company's performance, the 2021 performance forecast of Petit shares reflects the potential risks that cannot be ignored. Its annual net profit is 60 million yuan – 90 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of more than 21.62%. In fact, Petit's performance showed a typical trend of high opening and low going. In the first half of the year, Petit's performance was outstanding. In the third quarter, it was significantly lower due to the shutdown of Vietnamese factories. In addition, the company said that the ramp up of Cambodian project capacity and exchange gains and losses also had a negative impact on the annual profits. Zhongchong's performance was relatively stable, but after the high growth in the first half of 2021, Q3's net profit also declined due to the impact of consumer expenses, raw material costs, etc.
Petty shares said in the announcement that the company will continue to face the pressure of raw material cost from 2019 to 2020. According to the recent survey summary of Zhongchong, chicken is mainly used for export pet snack products. The company believes that with the gradual increase in the sales proportion of domestic pet staple food, the impact of chicken price fluctuations on performance will be reduced.
It should be noted that with Petit and Zhongchong's main food, the impact of single chicken is expected to weaken, but the overall cost pressure is still not optimistic. The cost advantage brought by the layout of New Zealand and the brand premium brought by high-end positioning remain to be seen. In addition, overseas distribution also faces certain epidemic risk. The shutdown of Patty's Vietnam factory is proof.
The domestic pet industry started late, and there is still a lack of case reference on how to layout overseas prospects. It is generally believed that the typical feature of pet food is that the purchaser and user are separated, which is closer to the baby powder in dairy products. Song Liang, an expert in the dairy industry, told the Associated Press of Finance that the success rate of domestic dairy enterprises in acquiring overseas brands in the past to turn to the domestic market was high, reaching more than 80%.